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Beijing has deployed its coast guard into the waters of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past remote Japanese territory as China ramps up strains over the Japan's leader's comments regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its ships carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are administered by Japan but also claimed by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the latest activity come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

China claims Taiwan as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “unification”. It has left open the military option. The island's administration and citizens categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the status quo without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, potentially involving the United States and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Defense Operations

In Taiwan, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was likely the maritime patrol, active near the territory over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to three drones operating near the island and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, seeming to travel unusually near to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are not rare, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said Beijing had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added the island had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from China since the Japanese official made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by stating that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other powers, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards Taiwan.